Rabobank [FX] CHF - even keel?

13 July 2026 Since the start of the Iran war, USD/CHF has appreciated by approximately 4.8%, confirming that the greenback rather than the swissie has been the market s preferred safe haven currency during the crisis. This news is likely to have been met with some relief by SNB policymakers, particularly since it appears that they had a hand in the move. Following decades of battling with safe haven inflows, the SNB stepped up their warnings of intervention at the start of the conflict. Indeed, SNB data confirms that the authorities sold CHF in Q1 this year, suggesting that intervention did occur. Even though the CHF is currently on a softer footing vs both the USD and the EUR relative to the start of the war, the SNB are unlikely to sit back and relax. FX intervention remains a policy tool and a risk for speculators. That said, the hawkishness of the ECB will have relieved some pressure on the EUR/CHF exchange rate and thus on the SNB. We expect further consolidation around the EUR/CHF 0.92 area on a 3-month view with potential for a slight upside bias reflecting ECB hawkishness. We expect USD/CHF to consolidate around the 0.81 area during H2. Continue Reading