Citi Market Review
FX: USDJPY saw another slight knee-jerk move as it hovered above 160, with our eTrading desk seeing 2-3x volumes above 30d average in the last hour. Finmin Katayama was on the wires overnight saying that "we're currently seeing sharp, onesided moves in the FX market...we'll continue to work closely with the US Treasury and respond appropriately". 160 appears as the clear line in the sand. G10 pairs otherwise mostly flat but EURUSD did make fresh YTD lows at 1.1048. Commodities: Gold took center stage on Thu but has modestly recovered overnight, trading at $3900 at print. This remains the key support level where a more decisive break could drive a deeper correction. However, we would need to see meaningful geopolitical re-escalation and still expect a gradual return of physical demand, limiting further losses. Oil prices drift slightly higher. New Oil Monitor highlights that if a US-lran deal is not reached in the coming week or two, Iran's incentives increasingly shift toward breaking and/or circumventing the “Iron Gate” blockade rather than waiting for a better negotiating environment. Equities: Mixed performance overnight but general trend is weaker, HK/China stocks lead losses
FX: USDJPY saw another slight knee-jerk move as it hovered above 160, with our eTrading desk seeing 2-3x volumes above 30d average in the last hour. Finmin Katayama was on the wires overnight saying that "we're currently seeing sharp, onesided moves in the FX market...we'll continue to work closely with the US Treasury and respond appropriately". 160 appears as the clear line in the sand. G10 pairs otherwise mostly flat but EURUSD did make fresh YTD lows at 1.1048.
Commodities: Gold took center stage on Thu but has modestly recovered overnight, trading at $3900 at print. This remains the key support level where a more decisive break could drive a deeper correction. However, we would need to see meaningful geopolitical re-escalation and still expect a gradual return of physical demand, limiting further losses. Oil prices drift slightly higher.
New Oil Monitor highlights that if a US-lran deal is not reached in the coming week or two, Iran's incentives increasingly shift toward breaking and/or circumventing the “Iron Gate” blockade rather than waiting for a better negotiating environment. Equities: Mixed performance overnight but general trend is weaker, HK/China stocks lead losses but Taiex holding gains (+1.35%). Microsoft Outlook outage continues, while Nvidia jitters persist, both are not helping tech sentiment. US equity futures tad weaker, but weakness has stalled as SPX e-minis traded towards 7600.
This is the key level to watch into the close this week.