Lumber Slides Further as Housing Weakness Persists
Lumber futures fell below $490 per thousand board feet, reaching their lowest level since July 2024, amid persistent weakness in the US housing market. Existing-home sales fell to their lowest level in 16 years, as mortgage rates above 7% and stubbornly high inflation continued to deter buyers. Although mortgage rates declined for a fourth consecutive week to 7.11%, affordability remains strained. Construction activity is also weak, with spending on lumber-intensive single-family homes falling 2.4% year-on-year in September, while builder sentiment dropped to its lowest level since 2012 amid high input costs. Mill closures across North America could tighten supply as prolonged US-Canada tariff uncertainty remains a headwind. A Democratic sweep of Congress has raised prospects for repealing duties on Canadian lumber, although the Trump administration has yet to secure a trade agreement amid ongoing negotiations.
Lumber futures fell below $490 per thousand board feet, reaching their lowest level since July 2024, amid persistent weakness in the US housing market. Existing-home sales fell to their lowest level in 16 years, as mortgage rates above 7% and stubbornly high inflation continued to deter buyers. Although mortgage rates declined for a fourth consecutive week to 7.11%, affordability remains strained. Construction activity is also weak, with spending on lumber-intensive single-family homes falling 2.4% year-on-year in September, while builder sentiment dropped to its lowest level since 2012 amid high input costs.
Mill closures across North America could tighten supply as prolonged US-Canada tariff uncertainty remains a headwind. A Democratic sweep of Congress has raised prospects for repealing duties on Canadian lumber, although the Trump administration has yet to secure a trade agreement amid ongoing negotiations.