Cocoa Futures Cross $5,200

Cocoa futures rose above $5,200 a tonne, pulling away from four-month lows hit on November 10, as supply concerns in top grower Ivory Coast intensified. The country's national weather agency (Sodexam) warned that cocoa production could fall between 21% and 25% in the 2026/27 season due to an exceptionally strong El Niño event. Annual rainfall is expected to decline by 10%—27%, shortening the rainy season and extending dry periods. Near-term supply flows are also facing disruption, as heavy rains have reportedly damaged roads in Ivory Coast, hampering bean deliveries to collection centres. Port arrivals remain well below year-ago levels, although dealers suggested that increased smuggling into neighbouring countries may partly explain the decline. However, subdued chocolate demand has contributed to a build-up in exchange inventories. ICE-monitored cocoa stocks have been rising since the start of the year, recently reaching a fresh 2.5-year high of 3,751,670 bags.