Rice Futures Hover Around 2024-Highs

Rice prices eased to around $17.2 per hundredweight amid profit-taking, but remained close to their highest level since June 2024. Concerns over global supply persist, with El Niño-related weather disruptions threatening production across major rice-growing countries in Asia, including India, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. India is particularly exposed, as El Niño contributed to its weakest monsoon in more than a decade. As a result, India's rice production is expected to decline for the first time in a decade and marking its steepest annual drop in nearly 20 years. However, the impact is likely to be cushioned by substantial inventories accumulated from previous record harvests. Thailand is also facing weather-related production risks, as El Niño threatens to bring hotter and drier conditions that could constrain irrigation water supplies and affect crop development. Meanwhile, flooding in parts of the country has disrupted agricultural activity and transportation.