Goldman Sachs on October CPI

We expect a 0.16% increase in October core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus). We expect a 0.21% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.3% consensus), reflecting higher food and energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a larger 0.23% increase in core PCE in October. We highlight three key component-level trends we expect to see in the report: We expect the airfares category to be unchanged month-over-month based on our tracking of online prices. We expect a 0.1% decline in medical services prices, reflecting a large decline in health insurance prices (-2.5%) as the Bureau of Labor Statistics incorporates updated source data on insurance premiums. We expect a slowdown in autos inflation, reflecting a 1.5% decline in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.3% decline in the auto insurance category. Looking Beyond October: We expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.1% in November and December, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories and shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases, as well as continued downward pressure from the health insurance component.