Australia 10Y Yield Holds Near August Low
Australia's 10-year government bond yield held around 5.0%, near its lowest level since late August as global bond markets rallied on increased safe-haven demand following a selloff in technology stocks. Investor concerns mounted after the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections raised fears that tighter regulations could slow AI investment, prompting a rally in US Treasuries that spilled over into the Australian bond market. The decline was reinforced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's November 3 decision, as the 25-basis-point hike to 4.85% was accompanied by a closely divided 6—3 vote and a less hawkish guidance, boosting expectations that rates had peaked. However, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that eroding confidence in the RBA could make inflation harder and costlier to contain, potentially requiring a more aggressive policy response. Swaps currently imply just a 6% chance of a December hike, while a quarter-point rate cut is fully priced by year-end.
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Australia's 10-year government bond yield held around 5.0%, near its lowest level since late August as global bond markets rallied on increased safe-haven demand following a selloff in technology stocks. Investor concerns mounted after the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections raised fears that tighter regulations could slow AI investment, prompting a rally in US Treasuries that spilled over into the Australian bond market.
The decline was reinforced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's November 3 decision, as the 25-basis-point hike to 4.85% was accompanied by a closely divided 6—3 vote and a less hawkish guidance, boosting expectations that rates had peaked. However, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned that eroding confidence in the RBA could make inflation harder and costlier to contain, potentially requiring a more aggressive policy response. Swaps currently imply just a 6% chance of a December hike, while a quarter-point rate cut is fully priced by year-end.