Wheat Rebounds on Dim Russian Export Outlook

Wheat rose to $6 per bushel, recovering from a near four-month low hit on November 4, as a tight Russian export outlook heightened concerns over global supplies. IKAR slashed its 2026—27 wheat export forecast from 42 million to 39.5 million metric tons, according to Interfax. Total grain export estimates were similarly downgraded to 49.5 million tons, from 52.8 million. Ongoing logistical disruptions across key Black Sea export corridors have hampered shipments, forcing Russian exporters to increasingly rely on rail networks and Baltic ports to maintain trade flows. However, these alternative routes are nearing capacity, leaving limited room to offset further disruptions. Meanwhile, traders are watching next week's trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington for signs of progress toward ending the conflict, with any breakthrough potentially improving the outlook for global grain trade.