Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
The S&P 500 slipped on Wednesday as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound at Thursday’s open. The S&P 500 closed down 0.28% at 7,482.71. However, the July 9 Polymarket contract implied an 85% probability that the index would open higher on Thursday. Why That Number Matters Markets have quickly shifted from focusing on AI earnings and economic data back to geopolitics, with the latest escalation in the Middle East driving a sharp rally in crude oil and reviving inflation concerns. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting also showed policymakers remain divided on the path for interest rates, reinforcing expectations that rates could stay higher for longer unless inflation shows clearer signs of easing. Investors will now turn their attention to Thursday’...
S. and Iran pushed oil prices sharply higher, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound at Thursday’s open. 71. However, the July 9 Polymarket contract implied an 85% probability that the index would open higher on Thursday.
Why That Number Matters Markets have quickly shifted from focusing on AI earnings and economic data back to geopolitics, with the latest escalation in the Middle East driving a sharp rally in crude oil and reviving inflation concerns. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting also showed policymakers remain divided on the path for interest rates, reinforcing expectations that rates could stay higher for longer unless inflation shows clearer signs of easing. S. economy.
The Bull Case Despite Wednesday’s decline, futures turned modestly higher overnight as investors looked beyond the immediate geopolitical shock. 32% higher early Thursday. However, renewed Middle East tensions remain the biggest near-term risk for equities. S.
” Brent crude surged more than 5% on Wednesday, raising concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and force the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. “The latest turn of events in the Middle East has reversed the short-term bearish outlook for oil prices. But the immediate upside pressure could be less severe than what we saw in the first weeks of the war,” said Swissquote Senior Analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. ” The contract recorded about $63,885 in traded volume before settling.
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