Republicans underperform as first midterm votes are counted
Early results out of Indiana and Kentucky are in line with polling that’s put Democrats well ahead in the battle for Congress. The first midterm votes counted on Tuesday night suggest a tough night for Republicans, in line with polling that has put Democrats well ahead in the battle for Congress on the strength of public frustration with President Donald Trump’s agenda. In Indiana and Kentucky, where most polls closed at 6 pm ET, Democrats ran well ahead of their early vote totals two years ago. They were competitive in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, outside of Indianapolis — where Trump won by 17 points in 2024 — and in Kentucky’s 6th District, which went for Trump by 15 points. Neither of those seats was a Democratic target at the start of this election cycle, but both races saw later investment as the environment appeared to degrade for Republicans. Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, an erratic candidate in the 5th District who has underperformed the party before, faced a last-minute spend from the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, a green energy PAC working to beat Republicans who voted to revoke energy credits last year. House Majority PAC, the Democrats’ super PAC, spent nearly
Early results out of Indiana and Kentucky are in line with polling that’s put Democrats well ahead in the battle for Congress. The first midterm votes counted on Tuesday night suggest a tough night for Republicans, in line with polling that has put Democrats well ahead in the battle for Congress on the strength of public frustration with President Donald Trump’s agenda. In Indiana and Kentucky, where most polls closed at 6 pm ET, Democrats ran well ahead of their early vote totals two years ago.
They were competitive in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, outside of Indianapolis — where Trump won by 17 points in 2024 — and in Kentucky’s 6th District, which went for Trump by 15 points. Neither of those seats was a Democratic target at the start of this election cycle, but both races saw later investment as the environment appeared to degrade for Republicans. Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz, an erratic candidate in the 5th District who has underperformed the party before, faced a last-minute spend from the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, a green energy PAC working to beat Republicans who voted to revoke energy credits last year.
House Majority PAC, the Democrats’ super PAC, spent nearly $400,000 for their candidate, JD Ford. The Kentucky seat became a target after Rep. Andy Barr left it to run for Senate. Republicans nominated former state Sen.
Ralph Alvarado, while Gov. Andy Beshear campaigned for Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a federal prosecutor. Republicans expected their numbers to improve as Election Day votes came in, but in both Indiana and Kentucky, the party’s vote share has universally fallen since 2024. Indiana Democrat Beau Bayh, the son and grandson of former senators, led in the early count for secretary of state, the one statewide race his party was competing for.
Yet Democrats remain wary about overreading the meaning of early votes, recalling that they banked votes for Kamala Harris two years ago before getting overwhelmed on Election Day.