Reading the signs of war in the Gulf

Trump administration officials are signaling patience with diplomacy, but the buildup of forces in the region are telling a different story. Separating signal from noise on whether the US-Iran war will escalate has been difficult for months, and now it’s a cacophony. Oil prices plunged on Monday on hopes of a deal with Tehran before jumping almost 2% Tuesday after the US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island, reportedly in response to Iranian fire at an American plane.

Yemen’s Houthis are still attacking Saudi Arabia and have advanced toward Aden, threatening to outflank Yemen’s Saudi-backed government forces and potentially extend Iran’s influence to Bab el-Mandeb, the Gulf’s other maritime chokepoint. Then there’s diplomacy. US President Donald Trump told Axios he’s in “ no rush ” to resume strikes and repeated that Tehran wants a deal. US-mediated Russia-Ukraine talks are also returning to Abu Dhabi next week, with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner expected to attend, making an escalation during their visit seem less likely.

The US midterm elections Tuesday are perhaps the noisiest indicator. Democratic control of either chamber could complicate Trump’s agenda in his last two years, potentially accelerating military plans before the new Congress takes office in January. But the president will still have considerable foreign policy powers. The final signal probably matters most: Where are the bombs and planes?

Three US aircraft carrier strike groups are expected to arrive near Iran within two weeks, with the USS Theodore Roosevelt the last one to make its way from Japan.