ING: The EUR
EUR/USD is looking to establish support at 1.120 after a good start to the week. A Democratic sweep at the midterms today could help, but we don’t expect radical mood changes in the pair. French spreads didn’t benefit from lower oil prices yesterday, signalling levels above 150bp are the new normal now. It therefore remains hard for the euro to shake out the lingering risk premium, and much more tangible progress is needed for oil to trade sustainably lower from here. In the eurozone, focus will be on a number of ECB speakers today. Since last week’s meeting, we’ve heard some hawkish comments, endorsing market expectations that at least another hike is needed. Elevated energy prices suggest there is little room for a clear dovish current to emerge yet.
EUR/USD is looking to establish support at 1.120 after a good start to the week. A Democratic sweep at the midterms today could help, but we don’t expect radical mood changes in the pair. French spreads didn’t benefit from lower oil prices yesterday, signalling levels above 150bp are the new normal now. It therefore remains hard for the euro to shake out the lingering risk premium, and much more tangible progress is needed for oil to trade sustainably lower from here.
In the eurozone, focus will be on a number of ECB speakers today. Since last week’s meeting, we’ve heard some hawkish comments, endorsing market expectations that at least another hike is needed. Elevated energy prices suggest there is little room for a clear dovish current to emerge yet.