CBA Economists Raise Peak-to-Trough Housing Price Decline Forecast to 14%
Commonwealth Bank economists now project a 14% national dwelling-price fall from peak to trough, versus 9% previously, and an approximately 15% decline across five capital cities. Brisbane and Perth are forecast to fall 18%. CBA also cut next year’s GDP growth forecast to 1% and raised its peak unemployment projection to 5.1%.
In an economic update published on November 3, 2026, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) economists revised their national dwelling price forecasts, projecting a 14% fall from peak to trough, up from the 9% decline previously estimated in September. The bank expects the five-capital-city average to drop by approximately 15%. The revisions are particularly sharp for Brisbane and Perth, where prices are now expected to fall by 18%. CBA senior economist Trent Saunders attributed the downgrade to a faster and broader market correction than initially anticipated, exacerbated by rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures.
The bank also updated its broader economic outlook, lowering its GDP growth forecast for next year to 1% and raising its peak unemployment projection to 5.1%.