Crédit Agricole: October Jobs Report Seen Rebounding as Labour Market Remains Balanced
The October jobs report is expected to show some improvement after September’s weaker print, with nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise by 65K versus 29K previously. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month, with annual wage growth easing slightly to 2.9%. Overall, that would still point to a labour market in relatively good shape and close to balance. Elsewhere, JOLTS data are expected to show the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio remaining near 1x, while layoffs stay historically low. Both ISM surveys are also expected to remain firmly in expansionary territory. With little sign of material labour-market deterioration, the Fed is likely to remain more focused on inflation than employment.
The October jobs report is expected to show some improvement after September’s weaker print, with nonfarm payrolls forecast to rise by 65K versus 29K previously. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month, with annual wage growth easing slightly to 2.9%. Overall, that would still point to a labour market in relatively good shape and close to balance. Elsewhere, JOLTS data are expected to show the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio remaining near 1x, while layoffs stay historically low.
Both ISM surveys are also expected to remain firmly in expansionary territory. With little sign of material labour-market deterioration, the Fed is likely to remain more focused on inflation than employment.