Arabica Coffee Futures Rally

Arabica coffee futures surged above $2.9 per pound, rebounding recent one-month lows hit in the last week of October. The market remains caught between signs of limited availability in the short term and prospects for increased production in the coming months. Despite rising coffee arrivals at ICE-accredited warehouses, particularly from Brazil, certified Arabica inventories remain historically low. Total stocks stood at 225,068 bags on October 29, remaining close to the 27-year lows recorded in mid-September, while nearly 44,000 bags were awaiting classification. Meanwhile, market attention remains focused on weather conditions in Brazil as the next crop develops. Conditions have so far remained favourable, although concerns persist over the uneven distribution of rainfall across key producing regions and the potential impact of the El Niño phenomenon. A weaker Brazilian real added to the downward pressure.