RBC Tweaks Estimates for BNP Paribas Ahead of Q2 Earnings

RBC Capital Markets updated its model for BNP Paribas (BNP.PA), revising its earnings forecasts for the French lender ahead of its second-quarter results due July 23. "We upgrade our [corporate and institutional banking] estimates slightly but cut our estimates for Arval. We expect BNP to continue to move closer to its 13% [Common Equity Tier] 1 ratio target. Our [price target] remains unchanged at EUR99, with the higher [cost of equity] reflecting the Sudan overhang, which is still a meaningful discount to our valuation," the research firm said Monday. Analysts forecast an 11% year-over-year growth in global markets revenue, reflecting anticipated gains in the equities business from elevated market levels. RBC also estimates a 6% gain in global banking over an expected rise in investment banking fees and higher rates in the transaction banking unit. After 60 million euros in forward-looking loan loss provisions in the first quarter, the research firm also anticipates BNP will book additional provisions in the second quarter, but the cost of risk is expected to stay under the bank's 40-basis-point guidance for 2026. RBC rates the stock at outperform.