Cocoa Prices Hold Near $5,400

Cocoa futures hovered around $5,400 a tonne, holding close to their lowest since early October, pressured by a sustained increase in ICE inventories. ICE cocoa inventories have steadily increased since the start of the year, climbing to a 2.5-year high of 3,688,949 bags by October 29. In Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, farmers said that despite below-average rainfall across most growing regions, conditions remained sufficient to support the current September-to-February main crop. However, the supply outlook for the 2026/27 season remains challenging. StoneX expects global production to fall by 9.6% to 4.74 million tonnes, potentially shifting the market from a 494,000-tonne surplus in 2025/26 to a 64,000-tonne deficit in the current season. Lower output is forecast in major producing countries, including Ivory Coast, Ghana, Ecuador and Indonesia, amid weather-related disruptions associated with El Niño.