Gary Black Expects Tesla Stock Rebound as Sell-Side Raises Earnings Targets

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA ) shares are trading marginally higher Monday morning as traders digest fresh delivery commentary and position for potential estimate revisions into the next earnings cycle.

Tesla stock is showing upward movement.

Why is TSLA stock advancing? What Is Driving TSLA’s Earnings Expectations? Over the weekend, investor Gary Black argued Tesla’s Q2 delivery beat was helped by an Iran war-driven spike in gas prices to $3.86 per gallon over the July 4 weekend, up from $2.98 per gallon before the conflict.

He also said he expects TSLA to rebound this week as the sell-side raises Q2 and FY 2026 earnings estimates, which could flow through to higher price targets.

Tesla’s delivery debate remains unusually wide, with Black calling estimates "all over the place" while still modeling close to 410,000 Q2 units versus ~406,000 consensus, about a 7% YoY surge if realized.

Premarket trading is taking place against a constructive index backdrop, with S&P 500 futures higher by 0.5%, which can amplify moves in high-beta mega-cap names like Tesla when sentiment improves.

Critical Price Levels To Watch For TSLA Tesla is sitting in a choppy, mean-reversion zone: it’s trading 0.3% below the 20-day SMA ($399.16) and 0.1% below the 100-day SMA ($398.08), while still 5% below the 200-day SMA ($418.61).

That mix typically reads as "range-bound" rather than cleanly trending, especially with price repeatedly gravitating back toward the high-$300s moving-average cluster.

Momentum looks more neutral than stretched, with RSI at 46.69—basically telling you the stock isn’t overbought or oversold, and direction may hinge on whether buyers can reclaim key trend levels.

The bigger-picture trend backdrop remains a headwind, since the 20-day SMA is below the 50-day SMA (bearish) and the death cross that formed in April (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA) still frames rallies as "prove it" moves until price can hold above longer-term resistance.

From a levels standpoint, the stock is trying to stabilize above a nearby floor while overhead supply remains obvious from prior pivots.

Key Resistance: $453.00 — a round-number area where rebounds can stall, and it sits well above the current moving-average cluster Key Support: $393.50 — a nearby pivot zone that’s close to current price and can act as the first "line in the sand" for dip-buyers TSLA Earnings Preview: What Analysts Expect for July 2026 Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the July 22, 2026 (confirmed) earnings report.

EPS Estimate: 44 cents (Up from 40 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $25.24 Billion (Up from $22.50 Billion YoY) Valuation: P/E of 361.0x (Indicates premium valuation) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price target of $398.55.

Recent analyst moves include: Freedom Broker: Hold (Raises Target to $420.00) (July 2) Morgan Stanley: Equal-Weight (Maintains Target to $415.00) (July 2) Truist Securities: Hold (Raises Target to $430.00) (July 2) Tesla’s Edge Rankings: Strengths and Weaknesses Below is the Edge scorecard for Tesla, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market: Momentum: Neutral (Score: 43.93) — The trend signal is mixed, which fits a stock chopping around key moving averages rather than cleanly breaking out.

Quality: Neutral (Score: 61.42) — Business quality screens as decent, but not strong enough on its own to override a premium valuation and mixed trend.

Value: Weak (Score: 3.6) — The stock screens as expensive on traditional metrics, leaving less room for error if estimates don’t rise as hoped.

Growth: Strong (Score: 88.15) — The market continues to price Tesla as a growth story, so delivery/earnings expectation shifts can move the stock quickly.

The Verdict: Tesla’s Edge signal reveals a growth-heavy profile with mixed momentum and a very weak value score.

For longer-term bulls, that usually means the chart needs to confirm (via reclaiming major resistance), because the valuation leaves the stock more sensitive to earnings-estimate changes.

TSLA Stock Price Movement TSLA Stock Price Activity: Tesla shares were up 0.20% at $394.24 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Pro data.

Read Also: Michael Burry Rejects Claims He Was Wrong on Nvidia, Tesla and Housing Bets Image: Shutterstock