Dan Niles Sees Apple Winning China Memory Exemption, Calls AI Chip Selloff a 'Speed Bump' as Nvidia's Vera Rubin Fuels Long-Term Demand

On Sunday, tech investor Dan Niles said that the recent pullback in AI semiconductor stocks is a temporary setback rather than the end of the artificial intelligence rally, arguing that long-term demand remains intact despite growing investor concerns.

AI Chip Selloff Driven By Apple, Meta Concerns In a post on X, Niles said AI-related stocks underperformed last week even as the broader market advanced, describing the weakness as a “speed bump” rather than a major reversal.

He attributed the decline primarily to concerns that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL ) could receive approval to source memory chips from China, potentially weighing on non-Chinese memory suppliers.

He also pointed to speculation that Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META ) could monetize excess AI computing capacity through a public cloud offering, a development that initially cheered investors but could also encourage additional capital spending. “My plan is to remain bullish on the diversified market during this seasonally favorable period until big cap earnings begin in late July,” Niles wrote.

Read Also: Meta Stock Rises on Report the Company Is Building a Cloud Business to Sell Excess AI Compute Nvidia’s Vera Rubin Keeps Long-Term AI Outlook Intact Despite the recent weakness, Niles said he remains optimistic about memory-chip makers over the longer term.

He noted that Nvidia Corp.’s (NASDAQ: NVDA ) upcoming Vera Rubin AI platform is expected to require “at a minimum over 3x more memory than a Blackwell platform,” arguing that any further declines in memory stocks could present a buying opportunity.

Niles also said he believes Apple will likely receive at least a partial exemption allowing it to purchase some memory from China, citing inflation concerns and CEO Tim Cook’s track record of securing favorable policy outcomes.

Why Niles Doesn’t Think The AI Boom Has Peaked While staying constructive in the near term, Niles flagged several risks that could pressure AI spending later this year, including more efficient AI models that require fewer computing resources, rising competition from low-cost open-source models and increasing semiconductor costs. “I do not believe we have seen THE TOP but are just in the process of a speedbump,” Niles wrote, comparing the current AI cycle with the internet infrastructure boom of the late 1990s, when semiconductor stocks experienced steep corrections before climbing to much higher levels.

Last wk despite S&P/Nasdaq +1.8%/2.1%, the "speed bump" continued in AI related names led by the semi index -4.4% due to: 1) fear of $AAPL being allowed to buy Chinese memory, 2) $META potentially having excess capacity to sell in their own public cloud offering.

As I posted… — Dan Niles (@DanielTNiles) July 5, 2026 Price Action: On Thursday, Apple shares rose 4.84% to close at $308.63, while Nvidia fell 1.39% to $194.83 and Meta declined 4.90% to $582.90, according to Pro.

According to Edge Rankings, Meta ranks in the 88th percentile for Growth, although the stock has delivered negative returns across the short, medium and long term trend.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.

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