Gary Black Says Tesla's Q2 Delivery Beat Was Fueled by Iran War-Driven Gas Price Spike, Expects TSLA to Rebound Ahead of Earnings

Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC has reiterated that Tesla Inc. ‘s (NASDAQ: TSLA ) second-quarter 2026 delivery beat came due to elevated gas prices amid the war in Iran.

Gary Black Says Tesla Deliveries Surge Caused By Iran War In a post on X on Sunday, the investor shared how gas prices had risen to “$3.86/gallon over the July 4th weekend” from $2.98/gallon before the Iran war. “The rise in gas prices is likely what caused the surge in 2Q EV deliveries YoY,” Black said, outlining delivery beats posted by Tesla, Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN ), as well as Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID ).

Read Also: Gary Black Says He Doesn't Believe Elon Musk Is Selling After Tesla Stock Drops Despite Massive Q2 Delivery Beat: Here's Why The investor then highlighted that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus (OPEC+) had an agreement in place to increase supply, adding over 188,000 barrels per day.

The agreement comes amid uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, reaffirming that the Strait of Hormuz was under Tehran’s command.

Black said that the “tiny on-paper hikes” were adding up, sharing that the pledge to increase oil quota would mean the countries will add “940,000 barrels a day to quotas, equivalent to almost 1% of global demand, since the war began.” Black mentioned how there could be a “price war” due to oversupply as oil futures tumbled.

Read Also: Ross Gerber Says Tesla's Stock Decline Renews Focus on Other Challenges for Elon Musk: 'They Make Just 3 Models' The investor then said that he expects Tesla shares to “rebound this week as the sell-side climbs over one another to increase 2Q and FY’26 earnings ests, which could boost TSLA price targets.” The avg price of a gallon of gas has risen from $2.98/gallon before the U.S.-Iran war to $3.86/gallon over the July 4th weekend after peaking at $4.56/gallon in June.

The rise in gas prices is likely what caused the surge in 2Q EV deliveries YoY ( $TSLA +25%, $RIVN +14%, $LCID … pic.twitter.com/dS5XVVEFXz — Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 5, 2026 Ross Gerber Weighs In On TSLA Slide Investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki said that the recent decline in Tesla stock following its delivery beat renewed focus on several challenges faced by the automaker and CEO Elon Musk, including an aging lineup, as well as falling gas prices.

However, Tesla recently launched the three-row Model Y L trim in the U.S. following the second-quarter 2026 sales boost, retailing at $61,990.

The vehicle would be available in the Premium All-Wheel Drive guise, with deliveries expected to begin sometime around September or October this year.

According to Edge Rankings, Tesla offers excellent Growth, but poor value.

It also fails to provide a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.

Price Action: Tesla shares were up 0.24% to $394.40 during the after-hours session on Friday.

Read Also: Gavin Newsom Slams Chevron, Says Gas Prices Still 'Elevated' Due to Trump's 'Reckless' Iran War: 'Skip the Brand Names' Check out more of Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

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