Preview: Jun Average Hourly Earnings and Weekly Hours data expected at 08:30 ET (12:30 GMT)

**Consensus expectations: - - Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +113Ke v +172K prior - - Private Payrolls: +107Ke v +120K prior - - Manufacturing Payrolls: +3Ke v +7K prior - - **Note: Range of analyst estimates for Nonfarm +25-200K - - The last negative job report was back in Feb 2026 - - **Reminder: Jun ADP reading came in below expectations (+98K v +120Ke) - - Fed Watch: - - Markets see 69% chance of a pause continuing at the July policy meeting. Markets see a 48% chance of a hike at the Sept meeting - - Recent comments: - - On Jun 17th the FOMC left the Target Range unchanged between 3.50-3.75% range (as expected) for its 4th straight pause under the current phase of its easing cycle. Vote to keep policy steady was unanimous. Statement noted that Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2% target. Policymakers adopted a more hawkish outlook, with nearly half projecting at least one rate hike by year-end. - - On Jun 17th Fed Chair Warsh post rate decision press conference noted that nflation is well ahead of the Fed's 2% goal; Forward guidance is not well-suited to current policy stance; Confirms that he did not offer projections - - **Insight: Fed has cut its Target Range six times under the current easing cycle by a total of 175bps. The last cut was in Dec 202