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Morgan Stanley Energy: Strait of Hormuz

1 Jul 2026 After 100 editions, we say goodbye to our daily tracker. In the last 4 months, we have tracked 587 outbound tanker transits and 457 inbound ones. Pre-conflict, that would have been 4,000+ each over a similar period. Key takeaways We observed 7 tankers exiting the Strait yesterday, with the previous day's count also revised upwards to 12 (+5); the 7d moving average stands at ~15/day. Inbound tankers have averaged ~11-12/day, with 5 observed yesterday and 14 the day before (also revised up by +5). US and Iran representatives have separately met with Qatari and Pakistani officials and mediators in Doha on Tuesday and Wednesday. (CNN) Oman has reportedly delivered a proposal to the US and allies outlining a plan for shipping companies to pay service fees to use the Strait. (CNN) Tanker transits have averaged ~15/day outbound and ~11-12/day inbound in recent days; that is around one-third of "normal" flow in the Strait Source: Vortexa, Morgan Stanley Research

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1 Jul 2026 After 100 editions, we say goodbye to our daily tracker.

In the last 4 months, we have tracked 587 outbound tanker transits and 457 inbound ones.

Pre-conflict, that would have been 4,000+ each over a similar period.

Key takeaways We observed 7 tankers exiting the Strait yesterday, with the previous day's count also revised upwards to 12 (+5); the 7d moving average stands at ~15/day.

Inbound tankers have averaged ~11-12/day, with 5 observed yesterday and 14 the day before (also revised up by +5).

US and Iran representatives have separately met with Qatari and Pakistani officials and mediators in Doha on Tuesday and Wednesday. (CNN) Oman has reportedly delivered a proposal to the US and allies outlining a plan for shipping companies to pay service fees to use the Strait. (CNN) Tanker transits have averaged ~15/day outbound and ~11-12/day inbound in recent days; that is around one-third of "normal" flow in the Strait Source: Vortexa, Morgan Stanley Research