How Many Vehicles Will Tesla Deliver in Q2? Here's What Prediction Markets Are Saying

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA ) is set to report its Q2 deliveries on Thursday, with the Elon Musk- led EV giant expected to report a surge in deliveries.

Tesla is expected to report a surge in deliveries amid a surge in gas prices due to the Iran war.

The company reported around 384,000 vehicle deliveries in Q2 2025.

Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying The prediction market is very bullish on Tesla’s Q2 delivery numbers.

Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $730,000 has been bet on the contract "Tesla deliveries in Q2." As per prediction markets, the probability that Tesla will report over 475,000 vehicle deliveries is 66%.

Bettors have placed a 56% probability on the company delivering over 480,000 vehicles.

Disclaimer: Kalshi and have an existing data collaboration agreement.

Analysts Expect Lower Numbers Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC expects Tesla to report close to 410,000 units in the quarter, exceeding Wall Street estimates of 406,000, but significantly below what prediction markets are betting on.

Despite the surge in deliveries, Black said he remains "cautious" on Tesla. "We remain cautious on TSLA longer term as 2026-30 earnings ests continue to decline and as other manufacturers roll out unsupervised autonomy over the next 12 months," he said.

I expect $TSLA 2Q deliveries on Thursday morning to be ~410,000 (+7% YoY) and ahead of WS consensus of 406K after gas prices surged during the quarter.

This could be TSLA’s 2nd consecutive YoY deliveries advance of >+5% after declining -9% in 2025 and -1% in 2024.

We remain… — Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 30, 2026 Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki, in a post on X, shared that Tesla "had a solid qtr." They had a solid qtr. — Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) July 1, 2026 Gerber had earlier mocked Tesla’s pivot away from EVs and into artificial intelligence. "Maybe Tesla should consider selling EVs again," Gerber had said amid a decline in TSLA’s share price.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors.

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