Gary Black Says Tesla Delivery Estimates Are 'All Over the Place' Despite Predicting 7% Surge—Ross Gerber Says Tesla Had a 'Solid' Quarter

Ahead of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA ) revealing second-quarter 2026 delivery figures, investors Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC and Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki shared their expectations.

Gary Black Says Estimates ‘All Over The Place’ In a post on X on Tuesday, Black shared that he expects Tesla to report delivering close to 410,000 units in the quarter, exceeding Wall Street estimates of 406,000 units as “gas prices surged during the quarter.” Read Also: Ford's $30,000 EV Pickup Prototype Spotted Days After Slate Auto Reveal As Recall Woes Continue The investor added that the deliveries surplus could mean that Tesla may report a “2nd consecutive YoY deliveries advance of >+5% after declining -9% in 2025 and -1% in 2024,” he said.

Black’s 410,000-unit prediction figure shows a 7% YoY surge in the EV giant’s second-quarter deliveries.

The investor also revealed that he held no positions in Tesla due to valuation concerns. “We remain cautious on TSLA longer term as 2026-30 earnings ests continue to decline and as other manufacturers roll out unsupervised autonomy over the next 12 months,” he said.

Black has been a vocal critic of Tesla, especially the company’s Robotaxi and self-driving efforts.

Most recently, the investor outlined that Tesla’s approach of putting human safety monitors in its vehicles was more expensive to run than Robotaxis by the likes of Alphabet Inc. ‘s (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) (NASDAQ: GOOG ) Waymo and more.

I expect $TSLA 2Q deliveries on Thursday morning to be ~410,000 (+7% YoY) and ahead of WS consensus of 406K after gas prices surged during the quarter.

This could be TSLA’s 2nd consecutive YoY deliveries advance of >+5% after declining -9% in 2025 and -1% in 2024.

We remain… — Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 30, 2026 In the same thread, Black shared delivery consensus from various sources collated by Tesla.

The investor said that the second-quarter consensus estimates were “all over the place.” He then shared how Tesla’s Investor Relations-compiled survey predicted 406,000 deliveries while bettors on prediction market platform Kalshi showed bullish estimates of 472,000 deliveries.

2/ Making $TSLA 2Q delivs even more interesting: 2Q consensus estimates are all over the place: Bloomberg is at 396K, the TSLA IR-compiled survey is at 406K, and Kalshi shows 472K. — Gary Black (@garyblack00) July 1, 2026 Ross Gerber Hails ‘Solid’ Quarter Gerber, in the same thread, responded to Black with his own take. “They had a solid qtr,” the investor said in his post.

Notably, the investor had predicted that Tesla deliveries would be picking up following the surge in fuel prices due to the war in Iran.

Tesla’s sales had “bottomed” and were “looking better” as “high gas prices work their magic,” Gerber said, adding that customers were shifting to EVs.

They had a solid qtr. — Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) July 1, 2026 Previously, Gerber also took a swipe at Elon Musk and Tesla’s pivot away from EVs and into artificial intelligence. “Maybe Tesla should consider selling EVs again,” Gerber had said as the EV giant’s stock recorded sharp declines, falling more than 13%.

According to Edge Rankings, Tesla offers satisfactory Momentum and Quality.

It also offers a favorable price trend in the Short, Medium and Long term.

Price Action: Tesla shares were down 1.11% at $415.95 during the after-hours session on Wednesday.

Read Also: Uber Ends Waymo Robotaxi Partnership In Phoenix, Plans New AV Tie-Up: Report Check out more of Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

Photo courtesy: Mijansk786 on Shutterstock.com