Will the Market Rotation Last Through a Critical Jobs Week?
Something is shifting in U.S. equity markets. After years of Magnificent Seven dominance, market breadth is finally expanding — the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average surged from roughly 40% to 57% in just days. But the real test comes this week. JOLTS (June 30), ADP (July 1), and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report (July 2) will set the tone for Federal Reserve policy heading into the July 29 FOMC meeting. A strong jobs number — consensus expectations sit at +118,000 — could put a rate hike back on the table, currently priced at a 29% probability by the Fed Funds market. A weaker print? The Fed stays in wait-and-see mode.
Something is shifting in U.S. equity markets.
After years of Magnificent Seven dominance, market breadth is finally expanding — the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average surged from roughly 40% to 57% in just days.
But the real test comes this week.
JOLTS (June 30), ADP (July 1), and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report (July 2) will set the tone for Federal Reserve policy heading into the July 29 FOMC meeting.
A strong jobs number — consensus expectations sit at +118,000 — could put a rate hike back on the table, currently priced at a 29% probability by the Fed Funds market.
A weaker print? The Fed stays in wait-and-see mode.