Morgan Stanley Cuts Oil Price Forecast As Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Rebounds Faster Than Expected

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS ) lowered its oil price forecasts for this year and next after noting that oil tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz faster than expected. A team of Morgan Stanley strategists led by Martijn Rats lowered its fourth-quarter Brent crude forecast to $75 per barrel from $80 and cut its end-2027 target to $70 from $80, The analysts cited improving oil flows, noting that 35 outbound oil and gas tankers transited the contested waterway last Thursday, returning traffic to pre-conflict levels. These figures include five very large crude carriers (VLCCs), capable of transporting a combined 10 million barrels of crude oil for export.

On the same day, 15 tankers, including five VLCCs, transited the route inbound. S. oil exports and depressed net imports into China – which are still protecting the rest of the oil market from nearly 10 mb/d of tightness. As Middle East exports rebound, the supply shortage is easing, creating a surplus in the Brent and Dubai crude markets and leaving an unusually high number of cargoes unsold.

8 million bpd surplus for next year, up from a pre-war surplus of 2 to 3 million barrels per day. Read Also: Kevin Hassett Says Gas Prices Will Drop Once Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal—Democrat Senator Calls Recent Price Hike 'Unacceptable' Shippers Doubt Quick Hormuz Return Morgan Stanley’s report of a faster-than-expected Hormuz reopening is a sharp contrast to the conservative estimates of the leading shipping companies. -Iran peace deal holds. K.

-Iran agreement until the route is proven safe. 50 a gallon, warning of “big problems” if they do not. 28 per barrel. S.

84 per gallon, as per AAA. Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors. Image via Shutterstock Read Also: ‘Extremely Frustrating:’ Analyst Says As Gas Prices Rise In Multiple States Despite Trump’s Wa