Brazil Treasury Sec Ceron: Economic activity is at a reasonable level, without excesses

**Insight: Ceron is signaling that demand is not overheating, which matters because Brazil’s central bank has cited resilient services inflation, above-target inflation expectations, and activity above potential as upside risks to inflation. The comment leans dovish for rates at the margin, but market expectations remain cautious: the latest Focus survey showed 2026 inflation around 5.33%, above target, while economists have recently raised year-end Selic expectations. - Most recent context: Brazil’s Copom cut the Selic to 14.25% in June and warned that aggregate-demand stimulus and stronger-than-expected activity could weaken monetary transmission. - Upcoming: the next key watch is the weekly BCB Focus survey and the next Copom rate decision for confirmation of whether easing can continue.