16:30 ET Q4 earnings call: Management sees “significant contract wins” over the next 12-24 months and says AV is “very well positioned” for

Guides FY27 revenue $2.125–2.225B, adj.

EBITDA $305–325M, adj.

EPS $3.02–3.34; midpoint implies ~10% revenue/EBITDA growth, excluding any SCAR-related revenue. - - FY27 cadence heavily back-half weighted: revenue expected ~45%/55% H1/H2, with Q1 only ~45% of H1; adj.

EBITDA expected ~1/3 H1 and ~2/3 H2; EPS expected ~25%/75% H1/H2. - - FY27 investment plan steps up materially: R&D 7–9% of revenue, CapEx 12–14% of revenue for production capacity expansion, SG&A 14–16% of revenue for international sales/business development; free cash flow expected negative in FY27 due to CapEx. - - Q1 FY27 likely down y/y, with SCAR stop-work leaving about a $30M revenue hole and order timing expected to ramp later in summer; management says quarterly variability from awards and acceptance testing does not reflect underlying demand. - - Defense budget timing is a key near-term risk: AV assumes a continuing resolution, full FY27 defense budget approval only around Dec/Jan, and dollars reaching customer accounts around March 2027; guidance does not assume early benefit from the large reconciliation bill, though upside would aid revenue and margins. - - Counter-UAS was “roughly a couple hundred million dollar business” in FY26; Titan more than doubled and remains one of AV’s fastest-growing and most profitable lines, while management says counter-UAS/directed energy could match or be 2–3x larger than the current ~$500M loitering munition business over 3–5 years. - - Locus directed-energy counter-UAS is viewed as near an inflection point: moving toward full-rate production this year, expanding Albuquerque manufacturing by $30M, and competing for the Army’s ~$500M EHEL program expected to be awarded in the next few months. - - Loitering munitions/one-way attack capacity is being expanded aggressively: Salt Lake City could add >$2B/year of Switchblade or related production capacity starting early CY27; Red Dragon demand is expected to rise significantly over the next 12 months, and Mayhem 10 could open a new launched-effects opportunity if downselected. - - Supply chain not seen as a constraint despite broad ramps; management says supplier expansion and throughput are part of FY27 CapEx plans and argues AV’s ability to scale tens of thousands of units annually is a key competitive advantage.