Deutsche Bank's View on Israeli Elections
Meanwhile, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key market risk, particularly after last week’s renewed rise in oil prices. Before the US vote comes Israel’s election tomorrow, the sixth since 2019, with the final polls still pointing to deadlock: neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition appears close to the 61 seats needed for a majority, while Eisenkot’s opposition has a modest lead in the latest polling averages. Protracted coalition talks or fresh elections are reasonable risks. Netanyahu has said he does not favour a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the election, but has left the post-election position open. A result that weakens Netanyahu could lower the immediate odds of Israeli-led escalation, whereas another stalemate — or a Netanyahu-led coalition — could leave the incentive for renewed military action intact.
Meanwhile, disruption around the Strait of Hormuz remains a key market risk, particularly after last week’s renewed rise in oil prices. Before the US vote comes Israel’s election tomorrow, the sixth since 2019, with the final polls still pointing to deadlock: neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition appears close to the 61 seats needed for a majority, while Eisenkot’s opposition has a modest lead in the latest polling averages. Protracted coalition talks or fresh elections are reasonable risks. Netanyahu has said he does not favour a pre-emptive strike on Iran before the election, but has left the post-election position open.
A result that weakens Netanyahu could lower the immediate odds of Israeli-led escalation, whereas another stalemate — or a Netanyahu-led coalition — could leave the incentive for renewed military action intact.