UBS: USD Strength
UBS advises against positioning against USD strength in the near term due to US economic resilience and expected stable labor market data
25 June 2026 The USD has strengthened broadly since early May, and this trend is unlikely to reverse in the near term.
With US economic resilience becoming increasingly evident, we see limited reasons to anticipate near-term USD softness.
Upcoming US macroeconomic data, including nonfarm payrolls, should point to a stable to improving labour market.
Meanwhile, ISM sentiment indicators are expected to remain broadly steady.
We believe further DXY Index gains toward 103.5 remain plausible.
While we remain mindful of our longer-term USD view, we believe it is too early to position for a sustained dollar reversal.
From a volatility perspective, we prefer to avoid selling USD upside and instead look for opportunities in crosses.
UBS Chief Investment Office GWM -- Investment Research