Cocoa Futures Drop

Cocoa futures fell over 4% to around $5,500 a tonne, reaching their lowest since early October, as investors trimmed long positions following recent gains, while rising inventories also added to the pressure. ICE cocoa inventories have steadily expanded since the start of the year, reaching a 2.5-year high of 3,635,354 bags by October 21. Still, signs of improving demand and concerns over West African supplies limted the downside. Cocoa grindings across key processing regions rose 14.3% in Q3, beating market expectations as Asian processing jumped 29.2% and European volumes increased by 3.2%. North America was the exception, recording a 2.5% decline. On the supply side, concerns are mounting over the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop. Below-average rainfall in the Ivory Coast has raised fears of weaker pod development, while Ghana is also facing a potentially smaller harvest amid weather-related stress and crop disease. The expected strong impact of El Niño adds further uncertainty.