Bitcoin Holds Above $81,000 as Analyst Sees $83,500 Breakout Trigger
Bitcoin trades just above $81,000. Milk Road analyst John Decoded says a move above $83,500 could open a path toward the mid-$90,000s, while citing compressed volatility and broader risk-off positioning.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades just above $81,000 as Milk Road analyst John Decoded says a break above $83,500 could trigger a run toward the mid-$90,000s. Why $83,500 Is the Level to Watch Decoded said on the Milk Road Show that bulls have defended $81,000 while bears haven’t managed to break Bitcoin below $80,000, even as broader risk assets unwind leverage. He pointed to Bollinger Bands, a volatility indicator, compressing to unusually tight levels, a setup that typically precedes a sharp move in either direction.
He compared the current setup to August, when Bitcoin’s volatility dropped to its 96th percentile shortly before the largest short liquidation event in the token’s history. “I’m kind of suspiciously bullish,” he said, adding that if Bitcoin flips $83,500 into support, “hold on to your butts because the mid-90s could be next.” Why Macro Conditions, Not Crypto Itself, Are Driving the Uncertainty The bigger risk-off backdrop traces to hedge funds pivoting away from long positions toward more neutral or short stances, Decoded argued, calling it the most defensive positioning in five years of data his team tracks.
He linked that deleveraging to credit concerns around neocloud AI financing, oil price uncertainty tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and weakness spreading across Chinese, Indonesian and Turkish equity markets. He doesn’t believe this reflects the AI buildout itself breaking down, calling that trade still in its early innings. Instead, he pointed to a broader rotation out of leveraged positions across markets. Why He Still Expects a Strong 2027 The third year of any U.S.
presidential term has historically been the most bullish for markets since World War II, regardless of party, Decoded noted. He attributed that pattern to reduced policy uncertainty once an administration’s agenda has already been priced in, alongside typical debt refinancing and business cycle dynamics. Moreover, he expects Democrats to win the House in November’s midterms but called the Senate closer to a coin flip than prediction markets currently suggest. Decoded anticipates volatility around the election itself but believes markets will digest whatever outcome occurs and then stabilize into a bullish 2027.
Why Decoded Calls Recent Institutional Wins Underappreciated He pointed to Ethereum Institutional, a nonprofit built to connect institutions with the Ethereum ecosystem, bringing on former Coinbase institutional research head David Duong as a new example of steady institutional momentum the market has stopped reacting to. “JP Morgan announced today that JPMCoin is coming to Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). Nobody cares. Nobody noticed,” he said, adding that Charles Schwab’s (NYSE: SCHW ) rollout of crypto trading to 40 million accounts drew a similarly muted reaction.
Moreover, he’s watching Aerodrome and Uniswap (CRYPTO: UNI) closely after both pulled back 30% to 50% from August highs, arguing the fundamentals behind their tokenized stock trading volume remain intact despite the price weakness. Photo via Shutterstock Read Also: Top 3 Financial Stocks Which Could Rescue Your Portfolio In Q4