Tesla Analysts Expect Q3 Revenue and EPS to Decline Year Over Year

Analysts expect Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA ) to report third-quarter revenue of $27.88 billion after market close Wednesday. That’s down from $28.09 billion in the third quarter last year, according to Pro. The electric-vehicle manufacturer has missed analyst revenue estimates in six of the last 10 quarters. Yet, it beat estimates in three of the last four quarters.

Analysts expect Tesla to report earnings of 43 cents per share, down from 50 cents per share in last year’s third quarter. The company also has missed analyst earnings estimates in five of the last seven quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall. Over the last 10 quarters, Tesla has beaten earnings per share or revenue only seven of a possible 20 times. Read Also: Where Trump’s Portfolio Meets His Power: Nvidia, Palantir, Dell and More Tesla Analysts Are Mixed Here are some recent analyst ratings on Tesla stock and their price targets.

GLJ Research: Maintained Sell rating, with price target of $25 Jefferies: Maintained Hold rating, raised price target from $350 to $400 Tigress Financial: Maintained Buy rating, with price target of $550 UBS: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $385 to $391 JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $445 to $415 Key Items to Watch The big item to watch for management commentary is a potential merger with SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX ). As the CEO of both companies, Elon Musk will likely be quiet on the topic, but investors and analysts may bring it up.

The companies are expected to see synergies from combining, and prediction markets are pricing in a higher likelihood that this happens sooner rather than later. Tesla previously reported third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, beating analyst estimates. The total fell short of the year-over-year period. Analysts and investors will be looking for commentary on guidance and demand for the rest of the fiscal year and beyond, especially as higher gas prices could boost demand in the U.S.

EV market. Another area to watch is active FSD subscriptions, which have risen in recent quarters. This is a key high-margin recurring revenue stream for Tesla as it grows EV sales in many regions, especially the United States. The company’s timeline on items is always a big area to watch.

In the second quarter, Tesla said the Optimus Bot is nearing production that would happen "soon." Investors and analysts will be looking for an update. An update on the Cybertruck and Semi will also draw interest, with the Semi previously on track for volume production this year. Tesla Stock Price Action The company’s stock price was up 3.8% to $368.06 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.38 to $498.83. Tesla shares are down 1.9% over the last month and down 15.9% year-to-date in 2026.

Read Also: Tesla's Q3 Delivery Beat Is Just the Start: Gene Munster Says TSLA Will ‘Crush Traditional Automakers’ Image via Shutterstock