Brazilian Stocks Close Lower Amid Election Uncertainty

The Ibovespa edged 0.2% lower to close at 205,079 on Monday, erasing earlier gains as credit-sensitive stocks ended mixed. Brazilian assets traded without a clear direction as investors remained cautious at the start of the week ahead of the presidential runoff. Polls by BTG/Nexus and AtlasIntel showed declining support for Flávio Bolsonaro and rising support for Lula, although Bolsonaro remained ahead in both surveys. The BTG/Nexus poll indicated a statistical tie, while AtlasIntel showed Bolsonaro’s lead exceeding the margin of error. Although Bolsonaro has yet to present detailed policy plans, investors view his candidacy as more likely to bring fiscal reforms, including spending cuts, which are seen as important to lowering interest rates. Financials closed mixed, with Itaú down 0.4% and Bradesco shedding 1.3%, while BB gained 1.3% and B3 rose 1.8%. Utilities were mostly lower, with Axia falling 1.3%. Petrobras also weighed on the index, dropping 2.8%.