US 10-Year Treasury Yield Edges Up
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 5.1% on Monday, following a nearly 15bps decline the previous week, as traders continued to weigh domestic inflation and interest rate expectations against broader geopolitical developments. Investors are currently pricing in an nearly 83% probability that the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged next week, while the odds of a 25bps rate hike in December stand at around 75%. Speaking at the IMF’s annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday, Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signaling the outcome of this month’s FOMC meeting, noting that hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy. His remarks helped reinforce market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady. Both CPI and PPI reports released last week came in hotter than expected. Oil prices edged slightly lower on Monday but remained elevated.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 5.1% on Monday, following a nearly 15bps decline the previous week, as traders continued to weigh domestic inflation and interest rate expectations against broader geopolitical developments. Investors are currently pricing in an nearly 83% probability that the Fed will leave the federal funds rate unchanged next week, while the odds of a 25bps rate hike in December stand at around 75%. Speaking at the IMF’s annual meetings in Bangkok on Friday, Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signaling the outcome of this month’s FOMC meeting, noting that hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy.
His remarks helped reinforce market expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady. Both CPI and PPI reports released last week came in hotter than expected. Oil prices edged slightly lower on Monday but remained elevated.