CXMT Capacity Could Rise 88% by Late 2028, Raising Oversupply Concerns
Korean media cite Counterpoint Research and TrendForce estimates that CXMT monthly wafer capacity could grow from about 320,000 currently to 420,000 in 2027 and 500,000–600,000 by late 2028. CXMT held 9.5% of global DRAM revenue in Q2, up from 7.6% in Q1. Gartner expects prices to decline from late 2027 or early 2028, while Micron expects tighter supply in 2028; actual output depends on yields, utilization and Chinese AI demand.
China's largest DRAM maker, CXMT, is projected to expand production capacity by 31% in 2027 and potentially 88% by late 2028, raising concerns about future memory oversupply and pricing pressure on Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron ($MU). - The Korea Herald and eToday * Capacity expansion: Counterpoint Research and TrendForce estimates cited by Korean media put monthly wafer capacity at approximately 320,000 currently, rising to 420,000 in 2027 and potentially 500,000—600,000 by late 2028. * New facilities: CXMT is expanding production in Shanghai, Beijing and Hefei, targeting conventional DRAM markets as competitors prioritize high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
* Market share: CXMT captured 9.5% of global DRAM revenue in Q2, up from 7.6% in Q1, becoming the fourth-largest supplier. * Pricing outlook: Additional capacity from China and established producers could ease shortages around 2028, particularly in conventional DRAM. However, actual output depends on yields and utilization, while Chinese AI demand could absorb much of the increase. * Diverging forecasts: Gartner expects DRAM prices to decline beginning in late 2027 or early 2028, while Micron anticipates even tighter supply in 2028.