Wall St Week Ahead — As AI rally wobbles, stock market's spotlight turns to earnings

(Adds SpaceX also reporting results next week, latest market data) Technology shares pull back after big run AI trends in focus with results from Meta Platforms, chip companies SpaceX, Tesla, Netflix among other reports due in coming week By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) — Stumbles in the market-leading AI trade are set to test investor confidence in the rally in the coming week as Wall Street focuses on quarterly results due from key players including Meta Platforms.

AI-linked stocks, central to the bull market that just marked its fourth anniversary, struggled in recent days, with sharp declines in shares of semiconductor companies and tech hardware firms such as Dell Technologies. Meta, among the hyperscalers spending massively to build AI data centers, highlights the upcoming week of quarterly reports, along with semiconductor firms Lam Research and Texas Instruments and Elon Musk-led companies SpaceX and Tesla. "It certainly feels like the narrative in the market is a little bit jittery," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions.

"Clearly there's a lot of uncertainty around where AI stands right now." Worries rippled through markets over risks tied to the financing of the AI build-out boom, which has lifted profits for a wide swath of companies and boosted economic growth. Investors were watching developments with CoreWeave, an AI cloud company with about $50 billion in debt. This week, its shares tumbled. In other recent signs of caution, strategists at Deutsche Bank and RBC Capital Markets separately pulled back on their recommendations of the tech sector.

On October 9, Deutsche Bank strategists said the rotation into tech had "run far and the risk-reward no longer looks favorable in the near term." Dragged down by the swoon in heavyweight tech and AI stocks, the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly drop since June. But the benchmark index was only about 2% below its record high set this month. Other sectors, which lagged as tech shined last month, posted solid gains on the week, including healthcare and consumer staples. "This is very much an on-off switch type of market," Melson said.

"When AI is working, it sucks all the oxygen out of the room for the rest of the sectors." Meta Kicks Off Hyperscaler Results US reporting season heats up next week, with investors counting on robust performance. S&P 500 companies are expected to have increased earnings by more than 30% in the third quarter, according to LSEG IBES. Massive outlays on AI data centers and infrastructure underpin the profit jump. Meta is one of five AI hyperscalers that combined are expected to increase their capital spending to about $1.2 trillion next year, according to Goldman Sachs.

Investors are eager for signs the companies can show returns on the investments, which would build confidence that the spending is sustainable. "One of the most important takeaways of earnings season is whether or not the profitability of the hyperscalers can grow faster than the pace of their capex," said Kevin Shea, senior equity analyst at BNY Wealth.

Shares of Meta, whose market capitalization was about $1.8 trillion, have risen in recent weeks as it launched its Muse AI assistant "With the cost of capital going up, this capex blowout is going to become more expensive, which raises the bar for returns," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. "Meta is going to be the first up to try to provide some color around that question." Semis, Tesla, Netflix Also On Tap Chip companies have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the capital spending boom, but the stocks have cooled off.

The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has slumped about 12% this month, although it remained up 57% on the year, compared with a roughly 12% year-to-date gain for the S&P 500. Wednesday's reports from Lam Research and Texas Instruments could offer broader indications of demand in the semiconductor industry. Lam Research shares are up 54% in 2026, while Texas Instruments stock is up 59%. Elsewhere, investors will focus on results from Musk-run companies with market values well over $1 trillion: SpaceX — the newly public space company that also has an AI business — and Tesla, another signature stock of the tech-driven bull market.

Streaming company Netflix, consumer products company Procter & Gamble and engine maker GE Aerospace are among other high-profile reports in the coming week. The rise in Treasury yields and prospects for further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve also remain front-burner issues for stock investors. Hot inflation data this week boosted bets on another rate increase at the Fed's meeting at the end of October. Futures pricing suggested most investors still expect the US central bank to wait until its meeting in December to raise rates for a second time this year.

"Another strong earnings season should help equities withstand moderately higher rates," analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said in a note on Thursday. (Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York; Editing by Colin Barr, David Gregorio and Matthew Lewis) ((lewis.krauskopf@thomsonreuters.com)