UPDATE 1 — US natural gas prices fall 4% on mild weather and lower demand view
Output eased from August-September records after storm-related shut-ins and pipeline disruptions Golden Pass feedgas hit a record 0.7 bcfd; Sabine Pass reached four-month high European and Asian benchmarks climbed near $29 per mmBtu (Adds latest prices) By Scott DiSavino NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) — US natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Friday on continued mild weather, lowered demand forecasts and a small increase in output in recent days. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12 cents, or 4%, to settle at $3.116 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 6. That also put the contract down about 3% this week after it gained about 6% last week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.8 bcfd so far in October. The average so far in October was slightly higher than on Thursday. That drop in output so far in October was due to a combination of Gulf of Mexico shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias and force majeure incidents and other problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and els
Output eased from August-September records after storm-related shut-ins and pipeline disruptions Golden Pass feedgas hit a record 0.7 bcfd; Sabine Pass reached four-month high European and Asian benchmarks climbed near $29 per mmBtu (Adds latest prices) By Scott DiSavino NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) — US natural gas futures fell about 4% to a one-week low on Friday on continued mild weather, lowered demand forecasts and a small increase in output in recent days. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12 cents, or 4%, to settle at $3.116 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 6.
That also put the contract down about 3% this week after it gained about 6% last week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.8 bcfd so far in October. The average so far in October was slightly higher than on Thursday. That drop in output so far in October was due to a combination of Gulf of Mexico shut-ins from Hurricane Isaias and force majeure incidents and other problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere in recent weeks.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 103.87 bcfd this week to 106.8 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday, while the forecast for next week was higher. Lng Exports Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants slid to 17.6 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to a five-month high of 18.9 bcfd on Friday with flows to Cheniere Energy's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana at a four-month high of 4.8 bcfd and flows to the first 0.8-bcfd liquefaction train at ExxonMobil /QatarEnergy's Golden Pass plant in Texas up to a record 0.7 bcfd. LNG export plants often pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some of that gas to fuel liquefaction and other equipment. Around the world, gas traded at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.
NG/EU Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the US-Israeli war with Iran this year. Prices in the US, however, have not reacted much to the war in Iran because the US produces all the gas it consumes domestically and US LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can. No matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot export much more LNG until units under construction enter service in coming months and years.
Week Week Year Five ende ende ago -yea d d Oct r Oct Oct 16 aver 16 9 age Actu Actu (202 al al 1-20 25) Oct 16 US weekly natgas +78 +67 +86 +87 storage change (bcf): US total natgas 3,64 3,56 3,79 3,60 in storage (bcf): 5 7 6 9 US total storage +1.0 +1.3 versus 5-year % % average Global Gas Curr Prio This Prio Five Benchmark Futures ent r Mont r -Yea ($ per mmBtu) Day Day h Year r Last Aver Aver Year age age 2025 (202 1-20 25) Henry Hub 3.18 3.24 3.35 3.62 3.79 Title Transfer 29.0 28.5 10.8 11.9 18.5 Facility (TTF) 3 0 8 4 1 Japan-Korea 29.3 26.5 11.1 12.2 18.1 Marker (JKM) 4 3 1 4 2 LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days Total Two-Week Curr Prio Prio 10-Y 30-Y Forecast ent r r ear ear Day Day Year Norm Norm US GFS Heating 135 126 116 128 160 Degree Days (HDD) US GFS Cooling 28 39 44 47 30 Degree Days (CDD) US GFS Total 163 165 160 175 190 Degree Days (TDD) LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports Prio Curr Next This Prio r ent Week Mont r Week Week h Year Last Aver Year age 2025 US Supply (bcfd) US Lower 48 Dry 111.
110. 110. 106. 106.
Production 1 1 9 5 8 US Imports from 7.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 8.6 Canada US LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total US Supply 118. 117. 118. 114.
115. 1 3 4 0 4 US Demand (bcfd) US Exports to 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.8 Canada US Exports to 7.5 7.1 7.4 6.5 6.6 Mexico US LNG Export 17.0 18.4 19.0 16.6 16.0 Feedgas US Commercial 5.8 6.1 8.1 6.7 9.4 US Residential 5.1 5.2 8.6 7.5 13.4 US Power Plant 38.7 34.8 30.7 33.4 36.0 US Industrial 22.4 22.3 23.3 22.7 23.5 US Plant Fuel 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 US Pipe 2.1 2.0 2.1 3.0 3.5 Distribution US Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total 79.8 76.1 78.4 79.1 91.6 US Consumption Total US Demand 106. 103. 106.
104. 117.
5 8 9 7 0 N/A = Not Available US Northwest 2027 2027 2026 2025 2024 River Forecast Curr % of % of % of Center (NWRFC) at ent Prio Norm Norm Norm The Dalles Dam Day r al al al (fiscal year % of Day Actu Actu Actu ending Norm % of al al al September 30) al Norm Fore al cast Fore cast Apr-Sep 90 90 83 76 74 Jan-Jul 85 85 90 78 76 Oct-Sep 84 85 93 80 77 US weekly power generation percent by fuel — EIA Week Week 2025 2024 2023 ende ende d d Oct Oct 16 9 Wind 14 8 11 11 10 Solar 7 8 6 5 4 Hydro 4 5 6 6 6 Other 2 2 1 1 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 40 44 40 42 41 Coal 16 16 18 16 17 Nuclear 17 18 18 19 19 SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Curr Prio This Prio Five ent r Mont r -Yea Day Day h Year r Last Aver Aver Year age age 2025 (202 1-20 25) Henry Hub 3.30 3.22 3.19 3.52 3.72 Transco Z6 New 1.19 1.52 2.26 3.53 3.56 York PG&E Citygate 3.73 3.69 3.58 3.42 5.47 Enbridge South 1.09 1.44 2.12 2.79 2.96 (formerly Dominion South) Chicago Citygate 2.86 2.71 2.92 3.23 3.60 Algonquin 1.38 1.65 2.51 6.08 5.04 Citygate SoCal Citygate 3.64 3.67 3.22 3.60 5.71 Waha Hub 1.92 1.80 0.00 1.03 2.88 AECO 1.45 1.35 0.95 1.13 2.13 Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Curr Prio This Prio Five ent r Mont r -Yea Day Day h Year r Last Aver Aver Year age age 2025 (202 1-20 25) New England 45.9 42.0 44.3 77.1 61.6 7 8 6 2 7 PJM West 92.5 82.9 57.5 60.2 54.4 6 8 2 3 7 Mid-Columbia (Mid 44.4 52.5 45.4 44.8 68.9 C) 6 4 9 1 6 Palo Verde 24.1 24.8 26.7 34.8 59.9 4 0 8 2 4 South Path-15 37.8 29.7 27.1 28.4 53.0 (SP-15) 2 6 6 4 2 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) ((mailto:scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: rm://scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/)