US Treasury Yields Tick Higher, but Post Weekly Decline
The US 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 5.11% on Friday, following an 11bps decline in the previous session, but remained down around 14bps for the week. Yields also stayed below the highs reached earlier this month, their highest levels since 2002. Investors continued to assess the Fed’s policy outlook, with comments from Chair Warsh at the IMF summit bolstering expectations that rates will remain unchanged this month. Warsh declined to signal whether another rate hike was under consideration, but said hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy. Markets currently price in around an 85% probability of a rate hold in October, while assigning nearly a 77% chance of a 25bps hike in December. Markets have endured a turbulent week, with both US CPI and PPI data coming in hotter than expected, while a rotation away from AI-related trades prompted a broader flight to safety.
The US 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 5.11% on Friday, following an 11bps decline in the previous session, but remained down around 14bps for the week. Yields also stayed below the highs reached earlier this month, their highest levels since 2002. Investors continued to assess the Fed’s policy outlook, with comments from Chair Warsh at the IMF summit bolstering expectations that rates will remain unchanged this month. Warsh declined to signal whether another rate hike was under consideration, but said hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy.
Markets currently price in around an 85% probability of a rate hold in October, while assigning nearly a 77% chance of a 25bps hike in December. Markets have endured a turbulent week, with both US CPI and PPI data coming in hotter than expected, while a rotation away from AI-related trades prompted a broader flight to safety.