EXCLUSIVE — PetroChina set for record trading profit as war upends market, sources say

Gross trading profit for 2026 to top 20 bln yuan, a record Benefits from large upstream portfolio, small exposure to Hormuz chokepoint Crude oil gains driven by physical trading, producers cutting prices Overseas refineries earned bumper margins By Chen Aizhu SINGAPORE, Oct 16 (Reuters) — PetroChina is poised for a record year in trading profits, five trading executives said, with its refineries outside China reaping bumper margins amid tight global fuel markets as the Iran war transforms the way Middle East oil is bought and sold.

PetroChina, Asia's largest oil and gas producer and China's second-biggest refiner, is cashing in on a large production and supply portfolio and an extensive refining and retail network that have helped insulate it from war-induced disruptions. Gross profits at the state company's trading vehicle PetroChina International (PCI) are expected to top 20 billion yuan ($3.0 billion) for 2026, a record, two of the people briefed on the matter said, speaking on the condition of anonymity as they are not authorized to speak with media.

By early October, its crude oil division, which typically generates over half of PCI's profits, had more than doubled earnings for the whole of 2025, with fuel products and natural gas departments also performing strongly, one of the two trading executives said. PetroChina did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Chinese refiner, which does not break out trading profits in its public financial results, posted a first-half net profit of around $14.65 billion for the whole group in August.

PCI's performance was in line with bumper trading earnings across the petroleum sector, with trading desks at European majors BP, Shell and TotalEnergies earning billions of dollars in the early months of the Iran war. BP said this week it expects third-quarter gas marketing and trading results to significantly exceed those of the previous quarter, while its oil trading profit will be broadly flat from the second quarter in what has been a strong year. Total said on Thursday trading in both oil and gas will drive earnings.

Advantageous Position The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for oil and gas trade flows that have been disrupted by the war, accounts for just 10% of PetroChina's system requirements for both crude oil and natural gas, Chairman Dai Houliang said in March. In contrast, domestic peer Sinopec, the world's biggest refiner by capacity, has been more vulnerable to the supply disruptions as it relies on the Middle East for roughly half its oil. PCI's crude trading gains have been driven by profits made on physical cargoes as Middle Eastern producers, excluding Iran, cut prices to export oil, said the one trading executive.

Arbitrage trade, or cargo movements between regions, has also contributed to profits, the person said. PetroChina's trading is also supported by wide margins at its overseas refineries as both the Iran war and the Russia-Ukraine war have tightened fuel markets. PetroChina owns half of the 210,000-barrel-per-day Lavera refinery in France and half of a 285,000-bpd Singapore facility. The Iran war has prompted Gulf producers led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to deploy shuttle fleets to ship oil across the Strait of Hormuz and sell via spot tenders.

Before the war, buyers sent in ships to lift cargoes under annual supply pacts. Producers have also cut prices to offset soaring freight costs. Saudi Aramco recently lowered its official selling prices for Asian buyers to six-year lows, and Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO deepened discounts to more than $30 a barrel for loading at its terminals. PetroChina, the largest foreign company producing oil in Iraq, is among those to have loaded discounted Iraqi oil inside the Gulf.

(Reporting by Chen Aizhu; Editing by Tony Munroe and Tom Hogue) ((aizhu.chen@thomsonreuters.com;)