Economist David Rosenberg Puts Recession Odds Above 50%
Rosenberg said recession odds over the next year are above 50%, citing tighter financial conditions, declining real wages and investor-driven market excess. He said financial conditions tightened 140 basis points over the past three months.
Rosenberg Research Founder and President David Rosenberg stated the probability of a recession in the next year is greater than 50%, attributing the risk to tightening financial conditions, declining real wages, and a market bubble driven by investors rather than technology. Market Bubble and Tightening Conditions Speaking on CNBC, Rosenberg warned of building momentum in current market narratives. ” He noted that market stresses typically originate in the credit market. 7% over the last 12 months.
5% monthly decline in real average hourly earnings, arguing that price shocks were "hitting a wall" in the labor market. ” He cautioned that the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening policy to fight a supply shock “won’t be able to do that without generating recession,” an outcome he believes is not currently on the market’s mind. How Has the Stock Market Performed? 76% year-to-date.
4% YTD. On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY ) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. 95. 63.
35%. Read Also: Dan Ives Calls CoreWeave Selloff ‘Way Overdone,’ Says Hyperscaler Earnings Will Back AI Spending — CRWV Stock Plunges Near 12-Month Low Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published editors. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock