POLL — China Q3 growth set to pick up on stimulus, keeping 2026 goal within reach
//realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=CNGDPQP - GDP poll data reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=CNINFQP - Inflation poll data reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=CNLPRQP - Loan prime rate poll data reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=CNBRRQP - Reserve requirement ratio poll data China Q3 GDP seen growing 4.4%, vs 4.3% in Q2 GDP growth seen at 4.5% in 2026, 4.4% in 2027 Inflation seen at 1.0% in 2026, 1.1% in 2027 C.bank seen keeping policy rate steady through Q1 2027 By Kevin Yao BEIJING, Oct 15 (Reuters) — China's economic growth likely accelerated modestly in the third quarter from a more than three-year low, supported by fresh policy easing, though the pickup may be barely enough to meet the lower end of Beijing's full-year growth target. The world's second-largest economy is grappling with deepening imbalances, as AI-fuelled exports and strong factory output mask weak consumption and private investment amid a prolonged property slump. Gross domestic product is forecast to have grown 4.4% year-on-year in July-September, according to a Reuters poll o
bank seen keeping policy rate steady through Q1 2027 By Kevin Yao BEIJING, Oct 15 (Reuters) — China's economic growth likely accelerated modestly in the third quarter from a more than three-year low, supported by fresh policy easing, though the pickup may be barely enough to meet the lower end of Beijing's full-year growth target. The world's second-largest economy is grappling with deepening imbalances, as AI-fuelled exports and strong factory output mask weak consumption and private investment amid a prolonged property slump. 6% expansion forecast in a July Reuters poll. 5%-5% growth target.
In late September, Beijing rolled out a fresh round of support measures, including targeted interest-rate cuts and mortgage subsidies, after the cabinet pledged stronger action to shore up growth and meet its annual target. 17 billion) in unused government debt quotas to help ease local government financial strains and support infrastructure spending. 0%," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. 2 trillion and likely intensifying trade tensions with major partners.
The government is due to release third-quarter GDP data and September retail sales, industrial production and investment data at 0200 GMT on October 19. 5% in the fourth quarter, according to the poll. 4% in 2027, according to the poll. 9% pace in April-June, the poll showed.
Downward Pressures China's exports, a key driver of growth this year, face mounting headwinds as cooling AI-related investment threatens demand for technology products and components. At the same time, a deal with the European Union to rein in Chinese hybrid-vehicle shipments could weigh on the booming auto trade, analysts said. China is likely to rely more on fiscal stimulus to spur growth, as faster producer-price gains and a pickup in consumer inflation leave the central bank with limited room for high-profile monetary easing.
Analysts polled expect the central bank to keep its benchmark lending rates, the loan prime rates (LPRs), and banks' reserve requirement ratio unchanged through the first quarter of 2027. 1% in 2027. An expected Politburo meeting and the annual Central Economic Work Conference in December could offer fresh clues on Beijing's policy priorities for next year. 0% GDP growth target this year," Michelle Lam, greater China economist at Societe Generale, said in a note.
6931 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Polling by Susobhan Sarkar in BENGALURU and Jing Wang in SHANGHAI. com; +8610 5669 2128;)