Silver Slides to About $55.60 After 2025 Rally
Spot silver is around $55.60 after falling about 6% today, following a 147% rally in 2025 and a brief move above $120 early this year. The article weighs forecasts of a sixth consecutive market deficit against expectations of weaker solar demand and a possible surplus.
An old market saying advises selling a hockey-stick chart because its right-hand side can fall as sharply as its rise. That strategy worked for short-term silver traders as the metal reversed one of history’s most dramatic rallies. Silver has been retreating through 2026 after climbing 147% in 2025 and briefly exceeding $120 an ounce early this year. 6, down around 6% today.
The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) has fallen more than 23% year-to-date. 5, just below current prices. The level served as resistance in October and November 2025. Fundamentals present two competing narratives: a shortage of metal versus the prospect of a wave of new supply.
3 million. Supply offers little relief: mine output is expected to remain flat, while total supply is projected to decline about 2%. The supply picture has been widely studied. Pure-silver projects are uncommon and rarely found in top-tier jurisdictions.
Most silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, particularly copper, which also faces a supply crisis. A sustained premium in China also points to demand for physical metal. ### The Bear Case: Thrifting and Full Vaults Deutsche Bank disputes the deficit thesis. “Peak silver scarcity is clearly in the rear-view mirror,” the bank’s head of metals research, Daniel Ghali, wrote in a recent note.
Solar demand is central to the argument: silver use per cell is set to decline 17% in 2026, as higher prices have led manufacturers to adopt thinner contacts and copper-coated pastes. Global solar demand is forecast to fall more than 20%, with Chinese demand projected to drop by as much as 33%. London vaults held about 914 million ounces at the end of August. Freely available metal has increased around 70% since one year ago, to more than 300 million ounces.
Ghali said the rising stocks in CME and Shanghai reflect “more than a simple reshuffling of inventories” Deutsche expects the silver market to move into surplus as early as 2027, with prices averaging $70 by Q2 2027. If the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, silver-backed funds could release about 40 million ounces by December 2027. Indian imports are running 25% below year-ago levels, further weakening the demand thesis.