Intrepid Growth Partners panel questions METR AI progress “time horizon” metric

Intrepid Growth Partners managers debated METR’s AI “time-horizon” benchmark, which estimates how long models can complete software tasks at a 50% success rate. METR data cited a roughly 10x rise in frontier-model task horizons over the past year, from about 1.5 hours to about 15 hours. Richard Sutton called the metric “bogus,” warning results can be manipulated, casting doubt on using the graph as a proxy for intelligence gains. Panelists discussed alternative progress signals, including simulated-election performance for AI agents, or labor-market indicators such as software-developer job postings. Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Intrepid Growth Partners Inc published the original content used to generate this news brief on October 13, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. (C)