Yusko Estimates Bitcoin Fair Value at $105,000, Expects Gradual Rise

Morgan Creek Capital founder Mark Yusko says Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) fair value is $105,000, but he expects it to approach that level gradually rather than in a sharp rally. Speaking on the New Era Finance podcast Tuesday, Yusko said Bitcoin has moved from a distribution phase, when sellers are dominant, to accumulation, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. He cited a double bottom near $60,000 earlier this year, formed as volume increased, as the first clear sign that selling pressure had run its course.

Yusko said Bitcoin’s bear markets have lasted almost exactly 364 days from peak to trough in each of three previous cycles, a pattern he linked to block counts rather than calendar years. That timing suggested early October as a possible final low. A brief retreat into the low $70s followed before the rally resumed. Yusko estimates Bitcoin’s fair value using Metcalfe’s Law, which values a network according to its users and connections.

He puts the current estimate at about $105,000 and expects it to increase 7% to 8% annually as adoption grows. Yusko estimated Bitcoin’s fair value was closer to $85000 to $90000 before the price climbed past it to $125000. He described that overshoot as a predictable result of human psychology, rather than a rational move. He expects Bitcoin to move gradually toward fair value over the next year and a half, then overshoot again after the 2029 halving, repeating the boom-and-bust pattern of previous cycles.

Yusko links Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to the halving, which cuts miner rewards in half and, in his view, requires a higher price to keep mining profitable. He divides each cycle into three groups of buyers: investors who accumulate below fair value, traders who enter once the price starts rising, and leveraged speculators who eventually drive a parabolic blow-off. As Bitcoin’s market capitalization grows, returns naturally diminish, Yusko argued. He said exponential-growth projections become mathematically implausible once an asset reaches trillions in value.

He estimated Bitcoin could reach a $15 trillion market cap within five to ten years, roughly matching the monetary value of gold, which he puts at half of gold’s total $30 trillion market. Yusko linked his bullish view to currency devaluation. S. accumulated $10 trillion in debt during its first 245 years, then added another $10 trillion in just the last five.

He said gold and Bitcoin can protect against inflation, arguing that Bitcoin’s fixed supply gives it a role similar to gold’s as money without a corresponding liability. Yusko said he personally owns Strategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) STRC preferred shares, which pay a 12% yield, to meet near-term living expenses. He described Bitcoin and gold as long-term stores of value intended to endure currency depreciation over decades.