JPMorgan Says Deals More Likely Delayed Than Canceled Amid Uncertainty
JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum said deal postponements were more likely than cancellations, despite slower investment-banking activity in late September. The bank also reported adjusted earnings of $5.75 per share, below the $5.90 analyst consensus.
In Tuesday morning’s earnings call, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) gave a preliminary 2027 net interest income (NII) outlook of 107 billion, excluding Markets. The bank said this would represent about 5 billion of growth from its annualized fourth-quarter 2026 guidance. It expects the yield curve to account for around 25% of the increase, with the balance mainly reflecting balance-sheet growth and changes in deposit and loan mix.
JPMorgan expects modest consumer deposit growth in 2027, continued expansion in wholesale deposits—potentially at a slower pace than in 2026—and broadly stable card lending. CFO Jeremy Barnum said consumer spending was strong in the third quarter and the investment banking pipeline remained healthy, despite slower activity in the second half of September. He said deals were more likely to be postponed than canceled, and cautioned that the gap between buyers’ and sellers’ price expectations could widen temporarily before stabilizing. Investment banking conditions remain supportive.
Bond-market volatility slowed activity in late September. Management said deals were more likely to be delayed than canceled, while differences between buyers’ and sellers’ price expectations remained a concern. JPMorgan said uncertainty prevented it from forecasting fourth-quarter Markets revenue. The bank reaffirmed its 17% through-the-cycle return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) target.
That compares with 20% in the third quarter of 2026; management said recent results had benefited from strong activity, high asset prices and low credit losses. JPMorgan is piloting its Smart Cash solution to gauge customer preferences and product performance. Management views agentic AI as an extension of existing competition from higher-yielding deposit products and fintechs. CEO Jamie Dimon warned that rogue AI agents could harm customers or misuse their data.
The bank is restricting risky external access, particularly through insecure credentials and screen scraping. JPMorgan is tightening some credit standards as lending practices loosen elsewhere in the market. Management attributed higher wholesale credit reserves to JPMorgan also cited risks tied to higher energy costs, interest rates, leveraged finance, hedge funds and AI-related exposure, rather than weakening credit quality, as factors affecting new lending. 90.
26 billion. 60 at the time of publication on Tuesday.