Fidelity’s Timmer Sees Earnings and Seasonality Potentially Lifting S&P 500 Above 8,000
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer said Q3 earnings momentum and seasonal tailwinds could push the S&P 500 above 8,000. He cited consensus estimates for 25% earnings growth and said actual growth could reach 30% to 35%.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ director of Global Macro, said corporate earnings momentum and seasonal tailwinds could lift the S&P 500 above 8000 as the current cyclical bull market reaches its fourth anniversary. In posts on X and LinkedIn on Oct. 13, Timmer said the benchmark index had gained 113% in nominal terms and 93% after inflation since hitting its cyclical low on Oct. 13, 2022.
He said elevated real yields had left the monetary “punchbowl” empty for some time, while sustained corporate profit growth had helped keep the market from returning to bear conditions. Timmer said the bull market began 4 years ago, on Oct 13, 2022, after a major reset in the cost of capital driven by the COVID-era inflation surge and a double-barreled monetary and fiscal impulse. He said the fiscal impulse was still ongoing, while the monetary… Timmer’s post was dated October 12, 2026. The third-quarter earnings season and seasonal window were the focus of the next section.
Consensus estimates point to growth of 25%. Timmer said he sees “no reason to not expect a repeat of the past few past stellar quarters,” which could bring actual growth to 30% or 35%. He wrote that earnings momentum, together with the start of a bullish seasonal window, could push the S&P 500 above 8k. ### Valuation Pressures and Profit Margins Timmer pointed to a structural divergence beneath the index’s headline performance.
High yield credit spreads have widened, and only half of market components remain in uptrends as financial conditions tighten. Investors are paying 19 times forward earnings for growth rates of 30% to 40%. 4%, driven by technological breakthroughs rather than COVID recession-era base effects. ### Portfolio Positioning Strategy Looking at historical cycles since 1950, Timmer noted that the current bull market has lasted 48 months, longer than the 39-month average.
Price gains of 119% on a monthly basis compare with the historical average of 101%. Timmer said he is maintaining a 60/20/20 asset allocation framework, citing commodities and 1-5 year TIPS as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be starting a new 4-year cycle, Timmer said, describing it as one of several key diversifiers. 83% year-to-date. 17% over the same period.
On Monday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, finished mixed. 04. 91. 82%.
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