THD: BoT Keeps Rate Unchanged
Thailand Central Bank is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.00%
Analysts expect BOT to leave its Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1.00 (Note: Would be the 2nd straight pause phase current easing cycle Apr Statement/Minutes: - Decision to keep policy steady was unanimous - Current policy rate remained appropriate to support slowing economy - Economic outlook was subject to high uncertainty - Inflation set to accelerate through 2026 and moderate in 2027 - Inflation to go above target range in Q2 - Govt measures might lift growth higher than forecast Staff Projections (last updated in Apr) Growth: - Cut 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5% Inflation: - Raised 2026 CPI forecast from 0.3% to 2.9% Recent data - On Jun 4th Thailand May CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.1%e (**Note: Thailand has a 1.0-3.0% inflation target range) - On May 17th Thailand Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.4%e (Note: Q4 YoY: 2.5%) Recent comments: - On Jun 2nd Thailand Central Bank Gov Vitai stated that there was no need to raise rates to address inflation; Inflation was not seen as threatening in long-term.
Saw GDP growing at 2.0% in 2026 (previously saw 2.1%).
Not worried about stagflation; Trade balance seen returning to surplus in 4Q - On Apr 28th Thailand Central Bank left the Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 1.00% (as expected) to resume its pause phase following two prior cuts under the current easing cycle.
Statement noted that the decision to keep policy steady was unanimous.
Current policy rate remained appropriate to support slowing economy.
Economic outlook was subject to high uncertainty.
Inflation set to accelerate through 2026 and to go above target range in Q2.
CPI to moderate in 2027.
Govt measures might lift growth higher than forecast - On Apr 28th BOT updated its Staff Projections which cut 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5% and raised 2026 CPI forecast from 0.3% to 2.9% - On Apr 28th Thailand Finance Ministry cut 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 1.6%, **Insight: BOT has cut the Benchmark Interest Rate six times under the current easing cycle by a total of 150 bps.
The last cut was in Feb 2026