UK Bond Yields Edge Lower

The UK 10-year gilt yield eased to 5.4%, tracking US Treasury yields lower following a US market holiday, while oil prices ended a three-session winning streak as investors weighed the implications of Russian diesel exports against escalating geopolitical tensions. Attention is also turning to Chancellor John Healey’s upcoming Budget later this month, after the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the government must find £35 billion to meet its spending ambitions, fueling speculation over potential tax increases. On monetary policy, hawkish BoE policymaker Megan Greene argued that stronger-than-expected growth and a resilient labor market suggest interest rates should be higher than the current 3.75% to curb inflation. Markets are pricing in four rate hikes over the next 12 months, although many analysts consider this excessive, given that several policymakers already view the current rate as above neutral.