INDIA BONDS — India bonds seen rangebound as RBI moves, supply weigh
By Khushi Malhotra MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) — Indian government bonds may trade in a narrow range with a bearish bias on Tuesday as investors assess the central bank's liquidity and forex measures, while elevated oil prices and a heavy supply may curb appetite. The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond yield may trade between 7.35% and 7.40%, per a private-bank trader. It closed at 7.3857% Monday, its highest in three years, after posting its biggest one-day rise in six months. The Reserve Bank of India's latest measures have clouded the outlook for banking-system liquidity and the impact on banks' treasury operations. Traders are also unsure whether the measures can provide lasting support for the currency, reinforcing expectations for further rate hikes. Bets of a December rate increase have hardened after September consumer inflation accelerated to 5.54%, above the 5.40% median estimate in a Reuters survey, while Brent crude held above $100 a barrel. Analysts at Nomura expect inflation to remain at 6.1% year-on-year in the October-December quarter before easing through 2027. "We expect a 25-basis-point hike in December, and a pause in 2027. Focus has shifted to currency defence." US CPI dat
By Khushi Malhotra MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) — Indian government bonds may trade in a narrow range with a bearish bias on Tuesday as investors assess the central bank's liquidity and forex measures, while elevated oil prices and a heavy supply may curb appetite. 40%, per a private-bank trader. 3857% Monday, its highest in three years, after posting its biggest one-day rise in six months. The Reserve Bank of India's latest measures have clouded the outlook for banking-system liquidity and the impact on banks' treasury operations.
Traders are also unsure whether the measures can provide lasting support for the currency, reinforcing expectations for further rate hikes. 40% median estimate in a Reuters survey, while Brent crude held above $100 a barrel. 1% year-on-year in the October-December quarter before easing through 2027. "We expect a 25-basis-point hike in December, and a pause in 2027.
" US CPI data due Wednesday may provide the next cue for the Federal Reserve's policy path and, by extension, RBI rate expectations. 61 billion) of open market sales later in the day, while States will also auction 312 billion rupees of debt. Traders fear the RBI could conduct more such liquidity-draining operations. 40% level will be a key barrier for the 10-year yield on Tuesday, though uncertainty over RBI operations could push it higher, traders said.
7975%. Swap traders will watch oil and cues on the RBI's interest rate path for further moves. com)